Whether you are building a product, starting a business, investing in assets, or in a field where you are dealing with the unknown. You are always struggling with questions to answer and decisions to make.
There are 3 categories of decisions:
Outcome = Known, Probability = Known
Scenario:
Q: If I throw a ball, will it fall?
A: Yes.
Such decisions are easier to take and the probability of what will happen is usually 100%
Outcome = Unknown, probability = Known
Scenario:
Q: Which road should I take home?
A: 5/7 days a week at this time road A has more traffic so I’ll take the road B.
The likelihood of which decision to make is clear since their probabilities are known.
Outcome = Unknown, probability = Unknown
Scenario
Q: If I write this blog will it work?
A: Yes, No, Maybe.
Depends on your content, audience, time, title, etc.,
There are too many variables and there is no way to compute all possible outcomes or their probabilities in this scenario.
The likelihood of operating in the decision category (#3) is often higher. In such cases, your judgment is very important.
One way to improve your judgment over time is by using a decision journal.
A decision journal is a powerful way to manage your decisions.
A decision journal helps you collect accurate and honest feedback on what you were thinking at the time you made the decision.
Notion template for decision journal
Further reading:
1. Introduction to decision making - https://fs.blog/smart-decisions/
2. Second-order thinking - https://fs.blog/2016/04/second-order-thinking/
3. Decision Journal - https://fs.blog/2014/02/decision-journal/
Create your profile
Only paid subscribers can comment on this post
Check your email
For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.
Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.